Iraq: Good Money After Bad

The "Coalition" suffered more hostile fatalities in the first 50 days of year five than during the first 50 days of the invasion (source). The surge is not a plan, it's just 20% more of the same. The problem is still Dick Cheney. He's had no idea what he was doing from the start (quotes).

In Baghdad, a rocket exploded near the US embassy in the fortified Green Zone during Mr Cheney's visit. The AP reports that the latest attacks have been unnerving because of their frequency, the size of the ordnance and the accuracy of some hits. As result embassy employees were told that, "outdoor movement" must be "restricted to a minimum," and they must wear helmets and flak jackets.

Cheney, 3/16/2003. "I think it'll go relatively quickly, …Weeks rather than months." (Three days before the invasion.)

Cheney, 5/29/2005. "They're in the last throes, if you will, of the insurgency." Transcript. Gen. Myers had just warned that insurgencies last up to nine years.

Cheney, 12/18/2005. "The elections were the turning point. … 2005 was the turning point."

Cheney, 3/18/2006. "Q: Do you still believe the insurgency is in its final throes? Cheney: Yes."

Understanding the graph. The fith year of the war started 3/19/2007, and the graph shows the annual rate of hostile fatalities through May 9 (52 days). The extra fatalities in year 2 were due to fighting the Shiites. Take that out and you see a smooth upward trend of Sunnis (insurgents and Al Qaeda) killing Coalition troops. The surge has now brought the Shiite's back in, so the trend may accelerate a bit. The surge is no change of strategy, it is just more of the same as the situation gets worse. (more graphs)
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Sunnis: Stay ... and Be Shot.

Bush tells us the Iraqis don't want us to leave. That's about right. Only 30% want us to leave immediately. But figure this out. 94% of the Sunnis think its acceptable to shoot at US troops, ...

Sunnis think we should not have invaded by 98 to 2, but 44% want us to stay till things settle down. Why? So they can shoot at us?

Probably not. Although 94% think that's fine, the Sunnis are afraid of the Shiites and think we provide some protection. They don't want us to stay because they like us.

Here's another mystery. Only 6% of Sunnis want an Al Qaeda style religious government. So why have they been supporting Al Qaeda? Same answer. They like Al Qaeda shooting at the US and the Shiites. Al Qaeda would have almost no support in Iraq (6% of about 18% Sunnis is only 1% of the population) if the US left and the Sunnis had some territory they felt safe in. ABC Polls Read more!

Un-De-Baathification

It works just like unscrambling eggs. In May 2003, the Coalition Provisional Authority, sent Saddam's army home with their guns and sacked the rest of the Baathist party. Out of work, many joined the insurgents. This was known to be mistake by all but Cheney's neocons even before it was carried out.

Finally, the US is backing a law to reverse the blunder. Shiites who dominate the Iraqi parliament, claim the point is to put Baathists back into key positions of power. This makes some sense as Saddam's army cannot be re-hired, nor can most former government employees, since the government has been completely reorganized and re-staffed. Sources Read more!

In Iraq to Protect Our Oil

Kissinger, of Nixon/Vietnam fame, came right out and said it. "American forces are in Iraq to prevent the Iranian[s] from dominating the energy supplies of the industrial democracies."—that would be the oil. Not quite the line Bush&Cheney have been feeding us, but it ... makes a lot more sense.

The Iraq "surge" is about Iran and began Oct 3, when the Eisenhower carrier strike group left for the Gulf. Bush announced a second carrier deployment in his Surge speech. That's over 20,000 men right there, and they are of no use in Iraq. The surge is just an extension of "Operation Together Forward" started last July to re-take Baghdad. It failed in October, so add another 20,000 troops and give it a new name.

The danger is Cheney's incompetence. He and the neocons have driven Iraq policy from the start and blundered at every turn with disastrous consequences: Risk from terrorism is up. Al Qaeda has sprung up in Iraq. Iran's president is now a fanatic. He and Hezbollah's leader are now the most popular men in the Islamic world. We are losing Afghanistan. Why should American's sacrifice so Dick Cheney can continue expanding his quagmire?
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