Iraq: Good Money After Bad

The "Coalition" suffered more hostile fatalities in the first 50 days of year five than during the first 50 days of the invasion (source). The surge is not a plan, it's just 20% more of the same. The problem is still Dick Cheney. He's had no idea what he was doing from the start (quotes).

In Baghdad, a rocket exploded near the US embassy in the fortified Green Zone during Mr Cheney's visit. The AP reports that the latest attacks have been unnerving because of their frequency, the size of the ordnance and the accuracy of some hits. As result embassy employees were told that, "outdoor movement" must be "restricted to a minimum," and they must wear helmets and flak jackets.

Cheney, 3/16/2003. "I think it'll go relatively quickly, …Weeks rather than months." (Three days before the invasion.)

Cheney, 5/29/2005. "They're in the last throes, if you will, of the insurgency." Transcript. Gen. Myers had just warned that insurgencies last up to nine years.

Cheney, 12/18/2005. "The elections were the turning point. … 2005 was the turning point."

Cheney, 3/18/2006. "Q: Do you still believe the insurgency is in its final throes? Cheney: Yes."

Understanding the graph. The fith year of the war started 3/19/2007, and the graph shows the annual rate of hostile fatalities through May 9 (52 days). The extra fatalities in year 2 were due to fighting the Shiites. Take that out and you see a smooth upward trend of Sunnis (insurgents and Al Qaeda) killing Coalition troops. The surge has now brought the Shiite's back in, so the trend may accelerate a bit. The surge is no change of strategy, it is just more of the same as the situation gets worse. (more graphs)